Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:08:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1ded…fddf crypto 230 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-3%) realized −$45 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%124W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$16
14 days+$18
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$111
other 14% −$6
sports 7% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +17.2% +6.1% 62% 62% +0.9%
≤30d 33 -5.7% -14.7% 48% 36% -17.6%
≤90d 229 -4.7% -13.8% 54% 39% -13.9%
all 229 -4.7% -13.8% 54% 39% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 39% -13.9%
10% -22.0% 32% -22.1%
15% -29.5% 27% -29.6%
20% -36.5% 22% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses124 / 105
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)229 / 230
History coverage47d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 56¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 +$17 +152%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$4 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$7 +132%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $5 +$1 +29%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 20 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 20 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 20 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 20 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 20 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 20 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 20 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 18 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 15 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 12 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 12 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 12 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 12 $5 +$9 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 17m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $17 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $11 27h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 36h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 31¢ $9 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $12 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 42¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 77¢ $5 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 15d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff SELL T1 100¢ $7 22d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff BUY T1 74¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.99 · official $15.42 (match) · 487 history records