Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:36:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1D 0x1dec…e107 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$164 (-6%) realized −$197 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days−$250
14 days−$250
30 days−$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$266
politics 20% +$34
sports 14% +$64
world 9% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -15.2% -23.3% 48% 48% -20.7%
≤30d 21 -15.2% -23.3% 48% 48% -20.7%
≤90d 21 -15.2% -23.3% 48% 48% -20.7%
all 21 -15.2% -23.3% 48% 48% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 48% -20.7%
10% -30.7% 29% -28.3%
15% -37.4% 14% -35.2%
20% -43.5% 5% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$47 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$660
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage11d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 90¢ $514 $547 +$34 (+7%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $113 $113 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $114 −$7 -6%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$23 -75%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $24 +$7 +28%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $85 −$19 -23%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $194 −$134 -69%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$16 -78%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $149 +$61 +41%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$4 -15%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $37 −$25 -66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $127 +$67 +53%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $104 +$23 +22%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $71 +$33 +46%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $131 +$31 +24%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $237 −$50 -21%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 +$3 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $149 −$122 -82%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $47 +$16 +33%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $151 −$104 -69%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $268 +$29 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $115 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $107 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $7 11h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $31 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $24 31h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 31h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 32h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 32h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $66 32h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $60 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $60 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $88 35h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 35h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $106 41h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $26 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $88 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $37 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $149 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $194 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $127 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $104 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $104 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $71 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $659.91 · official $659.91 (match) · 57 history records