Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1D 0x1dea…ee97 sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$241 (+2%) realized +$248 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate60%29W / 19L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$77
14 days−$35
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$650
sports 13% +$232
politics 13% +$627
crypto 5% +$43
world 5% +$1
economics 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.5% -9.1% 67% 33% -4.1%
≤30d 28 +5.3% -4.7% 64% 46% -10.2%
≤90d 28 +5.3% -4.7% 64% 46% -10.2%
all 48 -0.0% -9.6% 60% 48% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 48% -7.6%
10% -18.2% 40% -16.4%
15% -26.1% 40% -24.5%
20% -33.4% 29% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$60 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$248
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses29 / 19
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage204d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $219 +$6 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $345 −$27 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $113 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $128 +$80 +62%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $58 −$57 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $52 −$51 -99%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $41 +$26 +63%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $44 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $136 +$107 +79%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 11 $102 +$10 +10%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $46 −$22 -49%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $46 −$45 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $64 +$25 +38%
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? Jun 10 $316 −$192 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $71 −$44 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $51 −$13 -25%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $32 +$28 +86%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $91 +$33 +36%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $31 −$31 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $34 +$35 +103%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $47 +$23 +50%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $39 +$41 +105%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $21 +$19 +93%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $42 +$18 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 04 $8 +$8 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 03 $20 +$20 +96%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 02 $90 +$15 +17%
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale? Mar 01 $94 −$94 -100%
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? Mar 01 $246 −$34 -14%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 26 $158 +$18 +11%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 me Jan 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Seeker FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 21 $65 −$64 -99%
Over $40M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 30 $490 +$14 +3%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 29 $4,723 −$304 -6%
Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President ev Dec 28 $114 −$76 -67%
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events Dec 28 $9 +$5 +60%
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgios Dec 28 $53 +$35 +66%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $362 +$65 +18%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Dec 18 $125 +$115 +92%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 09 $920 +$562 +61%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Nov 26 $74 +$8 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 20¢ $225 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 12¢ $61 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 15¢ $29 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 15¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 31¢ $114 9h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 69¢ $116 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $113 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $128 3d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 57¢ $58 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 51¢ $52 3d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $38 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $67 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 43¢ $46 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $44 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 100¢ $243 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 55¢ $111 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 42¢ $111 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $25 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 28¢ $23 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 53¢ $24 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 51¢ $25 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 53¢ $21 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 51¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $20 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.83 · official $22.83 (match) · 268 history records