Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T07:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1D 0x1de9…0e02 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$96 (-26%) realized −$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$69
sports 7% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -23.1% -30.4% 50% 50% -8.1%
≤30d 4 -23.1% -30.4% 50% 50% -8.1%
≤90d 5 -38.4% -44.3% 40% 40% -35.9%
all 5 -38.4% -44.3% 40% 40% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.3% 40% -35.9%
10% -49.6% 40% -42.0%
15% -54.5% 40% -47.6%
20% -59.0% 40% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$58 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage60d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 65¢ 65¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $53 +$28 +54%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $105 +$52 +49%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $27 −$26 -95%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 26 $100 −$98 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $37 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $53 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $53 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $105 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $27 6d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 35¢ $100 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.51 · official $264.51 (match) · 6 history records