Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1de6…0b70 sports 75 markets active 7d ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$753 (+3%) realized +$753 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%32W / 43L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$386per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$287est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$238
14 days−$639
30 days−$602
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$630
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.6% -3.6% 75% 50% -26.2%
≤30d 26 -31.4% -37.9% 38% 35% -16.8%
≤90d 57 -20.3% -27.9% 33% 30% -13.8%
all 75 -11.6% -20.0% 43% 36% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 36% -7.4%
10% -27.6% 32% -16.3%
15% -34.6% 24% -24.4%
20% -41.0% 20% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$273 vs −$188 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$753
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$287
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage90d
Avg bet$386
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $41 +$13 +32%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $1,175 −$422 -36%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (+1.5) Jun 10 $158 +$141 +89%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $568 +$30 +5%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $181 −$180 -99%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $78 +$18 +23%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $1,814 +$618 +34%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $112 −$2 -1%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs CITA Kaizen (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $994 +$491 +49%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs MAGAZA (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $85 −$85 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $270 −$270 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $215 +$164 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $77 −$75 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 06 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 06 $52 −$50 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $230 +$40 +17%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 30 $18 −$17 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $23 −$22 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Game Handicap: GAL (-2.5) vs TLN Pirates (+2.5) May 29 $434 +$266 +61%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs TLN Pirates (+1.5) May 28 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 28 $220 −$220 -100%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs devils.one - Game 2 Winner May 21 $66 +$263 +396%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs devils.one - Game 1 Winner May 21 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Seaso May 21 $103 −$102 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $119 −$14 -12%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 17 $26 −$25 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 16 $111 −$109 -99%
LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs Dream Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 15 $2,448 +$887 +36%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix - Game 2 Winner May 15 $581 +$646 +111%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season May 15 $230 +$339 +148%
Game Handicap: OZO (-1.5) vs Team Phoenix (+1.5) May 15 $309 +$1,267 +410%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix - Game 1 Winner May 15 $108 +$685 +634%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 09 $141 −$77 -55%
LoL: Bubliki vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 07 $290 +$209 +72%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season May 01 $57 −$56 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M May 01 $4 +$3 +89%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig Apr 26 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Eric McConico vs. Rodolfo Vieira (null, Prelims) Apr 25 $68 −$67 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma Apr 19 $18 −$17 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Daria Zhelezniakova vs. Melissa Croden (Women's Banta Apr 18 $1,920 +$76 +4%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 18 $1,824 −$1,824 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Apr 12 $58 −$58 -100%
UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims Apr 12 $1,816 −$383 -21%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $100 −$97 -97%
LoL: Arctic Pandas vs NightBirds (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Mar 28 $578 −$383 -66%
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) Mar 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C SELL Galions 100¢ $54 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 54¢ $109 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 54¢ $3 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 54¢ $62 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 53¢ $229 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B SELL PCIFIC 63¢ $461 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B SELL PCIFIC 75¢ $8 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B SELL PCIFIC 75¢ $3 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 59¢ $7 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 59¢ $142 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 64¢ $320 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B SELL PCIFIC 48¢ $215 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 55¢ $255 6d
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (+1.5) SELL Misa Esports 100¢ $300 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B SELL Forsaken 51¢ $39 6d
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D SELL Solary 95¢ $158 6d
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D SELL Solary 95¢ $48 6d
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D SELL Solary 95¢ $48 6d
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D SELL Solary 95¢ $190 6d
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D SELL Solary 95¢ $48 6d
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D SELL Solary 95¢ $48 6d
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D SELL Solary 95¢ $60 6d
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (+1.5) BUY Misa Esports 52¢ $158 6d
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) BUY Anubis Gaming 38¢ $31 7d
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY Galions 76¢ $34 7d
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY Galions 72¢ $7 7d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Forsaken 63¢ $24 7d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Forsaken 62¢ $25 7d
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Solary 90¢ $568 7d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In BUY Verdant 13¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 471 history records