Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:28:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1de4…9f53 other 409 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$849 (-2%) realized −$894 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate60%237W / 159L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$762now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$83
14 days+$131
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$1,130
politics 4% +$45
tech 1% +$23
weather 0% −$10
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -9.7% -18.3% 82% 6% -6.7%
≤30d 66 +0.8% -8.8% 76% 11% -7.4%
≤90d 286 -4.7% -13.7% 57% 15% -9.8%
all 396 -1.0% -10.4% 60% 17% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 17% -11.5%
10% -19.0% 11% -20.0%
15% -26.8% 9% -27.7%
20% -34.0% 7% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$762
Realized−$894
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses237 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)396 / 409
History coverage120d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $95 $99 +$4 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $96 $96 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 50¢ $17 $50 +$33 (+197%)
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 95¢ 90¢ $52 $49 −$3 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+4%)
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+15%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $188 +$12 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $96 +$3 +4%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $118 +$2 +2%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $189 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $86 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $95 +$5 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $287 +$48 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $195 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $98 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $681 +$19 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $103 −$22 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $18 +$2 +12%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $52 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $98 +$2 +2%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $92 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $280 +$12 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $110 −$7 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $13 +$12 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $9 −$8 -94%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$33 +326%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $14 +$6 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $147 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $295 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $99 −$16 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $98 −$5 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 43m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 50m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 50m
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $74 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 16h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $33 16h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 23h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $62 23h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 37h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $761.84 · official $761.84 (match) · 1743 history records