Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:22:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1D 0x1de2…9e23 world 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 678d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,482 (+8%) realized +$2,684 · open −$202
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate56%85W / 68L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$33
14 days−$42
30 days−$361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$1,782
economics 17% +$1,619
politics 14% +$902
other 8% −$646
finance 7% −$145
tech 5% −$918
sports 0% +$4
crypto 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -5.9% -14.9% 33% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 14 +2.2% -7.5% 50% 21% -17.8%
≤90d 41 +15.2% +4.2% 63% 44% +1.9%
all 153 +11.8% +1.1% 56% 37% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 37% -1.8%
10% -8.5% 29% -11.2%
15% -17.4% 24% -19.7%
20% -25.5% 18% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$62 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

678d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$2,684
Unrealized−$202
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses85 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)153 / 157
History coverage678d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 16¢ $276 $87 −$189 (-69%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 10¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 52¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $100 −$13 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $761 +$53 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $600 −$73 -12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $50 −$14 -28%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $400 +$4 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $200 +$556 +278%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $614 −$614 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $300 −$300 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $126 +$74 +59%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $380 −$72 -19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $100 +$8 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $200 +$16 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $80 +$33 +41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026? May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $150 +$36 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 24 $100 +$174 +174%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 24 $100 +$257 +257%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $200 +$316 +158%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $300 +$32 +11%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $744 +$370 +50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $300 −$125 -42%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $1,000 +$552 +55%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $30 −$11 -36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 20 $40 +$4 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 20 $30 +$12 +39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 14 $400 +$119 +30%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $362 −$362 -100%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win? Apr 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Apr 11 $200 +$15 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Apr 10 $100 +$17 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 10 $500 +$52 +10%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Mar 30 $100 −$11 -11%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $736 −$48 -6%
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $100 +$64 +64%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 23 $100 +$23 +23%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 23 $349 +$24 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 23 $100 +$69 +69%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 23 $100 +$56 +56%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Mar 23 $74 +$22 +30%
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 16 $74 +$42 +56%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 16 $70 −$39 -56%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Mar 16 $200 +$76 +38%
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 16 $100 +$56 +56%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 09 $350 −$41 -12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 09 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 09 $50 −$18 -36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 09 $50 −$15 -29%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 06 $300 +$9 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $87 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $341 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $473 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $561 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $100 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $200 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 65¢ $86 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 76¢ $100 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 24¢ $442 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 37¢ $200 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 23¢ $300 5d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 5d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 5d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 16¢ $104 6d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 16¢ $104 6d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 15¢ $95 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $36 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $50 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $24 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $6 11d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $404 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $400 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY Yes 17¢ $32 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY Yes 20¢ $80 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $200 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY Yes 35¢ $200 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY Yes 24¢ $300 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $300 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.90 · official $213.90 (match) · 703 history records