Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1D 0x1dde…f6bf crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$81 (+8%) realized +$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR93%break-even
Win rate93%27W / 2L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +93%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +12.7% +1.9% 93% 93% -0.9%
≤30d 29 +12.7% +1.9% 93% 93% -0.9%
≤90d 29 +12.7% +1.9% 93% 93% -0.9%
all 29 +12.7% +1.9% 93% 93% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 93% -0.9%
10% ← realistic here -7.8% 17% -10.4%
15% -16.7% 0% -19.0%
20% -24.9% 0% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$37 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses27 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 82¢ 82¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $61 −$25 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$7 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$7 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$6 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$6 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$7 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$6 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$7 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$10 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$9 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$12 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$8 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $31 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $31 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $31 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $31 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $31 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.18 · official $26.89 · 59 history records