Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1ddd…3254 other 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$387 (-9%) realized −$382 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%40W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$242
7 days−$433
14 days−$397
30 days−$397
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$97
crypto 21% −$350
sports 12% −$154
finance 1% +$8
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -21.1% -28.6% 32% 28% -46.4%
≤30d 27 -17.2% -25.1% 33% 30% -40.0%
≤90d 47 -19.7% -27.3% 38% 32% -26.3%
all 114 -3.5% -12.6% 35% 31% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 31% -18.3%
10% -21.0% 24% -26.1%
15% -28.6% 23% -33.2%
20% -35.6% 18% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$29 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$382
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses40 / 74
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)114 / 117
History coverage226d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $101 $97 −$4 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $209 +$264 +126%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $41 −$4 -9%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$6 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$12 -47%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 10 $544 −$544 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$6 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $58 +$38 +66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 06 $61 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 23 $17 −$11 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 23 $30 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 23 $80 −$56 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 23 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 23 $121 −$121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 23 $37 +$77 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 23 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 23 $36 +$42 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 23 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $450 +$468 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 21 $10 $0 +1%
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $46 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 21 $40 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $263 −$106 -40%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $53 +$67 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $263 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $50 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $149 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $75 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $105 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $44 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $59 18h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $37 18h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 38h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 38h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 38h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 38h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 38h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $80 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.96 · official $192.96 (match) · 550 history records