Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:22:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

1D 0x1ddc…e1aa other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$442 (+78%) realized +$413 · open +$29

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +418% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +333% what you keep after slip

Net edge+333%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown6%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day12.0pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit45%portable

Net worth$479now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+368.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+418.1%	+368.8%	40%	40%	+296.1%
≤30d	5	+418.1%	+368.8%	40%	40%	+296.1%
≤90d	5	+418.1%	+368.8%	40%	40%	+296.1%
all	5	+418.1%	+368.8%	40%	40%	+296.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+368.8%	40%	+296.1%
10%	+323.9%	40%	+258.2%
15%	+283.0%	40%	+223.6%
20%	+245.4%	40%	+191.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +499% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +418% · $-wt +499% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$226 vs −$9 · ×25.39 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×16.93 per $1 lost it wins $16.93

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$479

Realized+$413

Unrealized+$29

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions6

Markets (closed)5 / 11

History coverage1d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day12.0

Drawdown6%

Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5	Over	22¢	26¢	$100	$116	+$16 (+16%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Spain	31¢	34¢	$100	$111	+$11 (+11%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Spain	14¢	16¢	$100	$111	+$11 (+11%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	20¢	19¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Spain?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$50	$46	−$4 (-7%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$50	$46	−$4 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: France (-2.5)	Jun 26	$53	+$208	+391%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$11	−$11	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$5	+$245	+4576%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain?	BUY Yes	6¢	$53	1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Spain?	BUY Yes	7¢	$53	1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	20¢	$53	1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5	BUY Over	22¢	$106	1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	31¢	$106	1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	14¢	$107	1h
Spread: France (-2.5)	SELL France	98¢	$261	1h
Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY France	18¢	$53	16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	18h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	3¢	$11	18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	2¢	$11	18h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.80 · official $478.83 (match) · 16 history records