Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1D 0x1dda…a611 world 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$1
politics 6% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
other 2% $0
finance 2% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.4%
all 20 +0.8% -8.8% 55% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×10.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×37.83 per $1 lost it wins $37.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage453d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $35 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $101 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 26 $8 $0 +4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on June Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $8 $0 +4%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 01 $11 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $1,900 on March 21? Mar 22 $11 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $3 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $32 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $32 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $32 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $10 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $24 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $1 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $2 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 95¢ $2 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $34 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $34 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $34 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $1 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $34 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $38 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $38 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $37 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $37 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $34 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $35 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $37 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $38 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $38 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $15 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $15 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $10 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $10 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records