Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1dda…23bb
weather · 723 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
+$1,519 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,506 · open +$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,788
Realized+$1,506
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses672 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions22
Markets (closed)708 / 723
History coverage18d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day161.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 22 History 708 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$290
14 days+$405
30 days+$1,506
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,841 $1,845 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $922 $923 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $723 $725 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $516 $517 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $475 $476 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $429 $430 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $316 $316 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $300 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $258 $259 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $164 $165 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $94 $94 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 35°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 11? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 16? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 7? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 16? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $500 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? Jun 12 $337 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $1,484 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11? Jun 12 $215 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1,180 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $116 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 11? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $167 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1,374 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $641 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on Jun 12 $664 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $464 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $277 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $52 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $457 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $399 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $485 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $502 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $539 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $322 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 94% +$1,594
sports 6% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $299 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $28 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $28 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $497 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $622 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $299 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $49 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $98 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $205 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $313 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $106 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $258 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $298 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $39 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $34 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $23 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 375 -0.9% -10.3% 95% 1% -9.2%
≤30d 708 +3.3% -6.6% 95% 1% -8.8%
≤90d 708 +3.3% -6.6% 95% 1% -8.8%
all 708 +3.3% -6.6% 95% 1% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover161.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 1% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 1% -17.5%
15% -23.7% 1% -25.5%
20% -31.1% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,788.25 · official $6,788.25 (match) · 3500 history records