Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1D 0x1dd8…9d40 crypto 29 markets active 4d ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$244 (+3%) realized +$95 · open +$149
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,036now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$159
14 days−$159
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$912
other 26% +$91
world 13% −$721
sports 3% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -18.7% -26.5% 0% 0% -24.8%
≤30d 3 -18.7% -26.5% 0% 0% -24.8%
≤90d 3 -18.7% -26.5% 0% 0% -24.8%
all 28 -17.3% -25.2% 39% 29% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 29% -8.5%
10% -32.4% 21% -17.2%
15% -38.9% 14% -25.2%
20% -44.9% 14% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$81 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$1,036
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$149
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage155d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $887 $1,036 +$149 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $233 −$92 -39%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $512 −$55 -11%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $198 −$12 -6%
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026? Feb 28 $40 −$40 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026? Feb 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 9? Feb 28 $156 +$301 +193%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 12? Feb 28 $187 −$187 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $37 −$37 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $72 −$68 -94%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$95 -95%
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$95 -95%
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$95 -95%
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$94 -94%
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$94 -94%
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$95 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $148 +$39 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $120 +$28 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $108 +$129 +119%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 8? Feb 08 $133 −$133 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 7? Feb 07 $139 −$130 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $65 +$74 +114%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 30? Feb 01 $1,043 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $941 +$41 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $957 −$23 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 30? Jan 29 $178 +$730 +410%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $282 +$37 +13%
Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January? Jan 29 $132 +$10 +7%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 22 $212 +$32 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $30 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $104 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $104 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $38 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $37 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $193 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $194 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $368 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $455 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $457 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $186 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $186 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $198 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $509 8d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 108d
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $4 108d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 108d
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $5 108d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 108d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $6 108d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $11 108d
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $5 108d
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $5 108d
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $6 108d
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $6 108d
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $5 108d
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $40 108d
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $40 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,036.35 · official $1,036.35 (match) · 101 history records