Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

1D 0x1dd7…0a46 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$646 (+10%) realized +$647 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate30%3W / 7L

Drawdown60%max

Avg bet$599per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit82%portable

Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$44

7 days−$44

14 days−$44

30 days−$44

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)-30.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-44.8%	-50.1%	0%	0%	-50.1%
≤30d	1	-44.8%	-50.1%	0%	0%	-50.1%
≤90d	1	-44.8%	-50.1%	0%	0%	-50.1%
all	10	-23.4%	-30.7%	30%	30%	-0.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-30.7%	30%	-0.8%
10%	-37.3%	20%	-10.3%
15%	-43.4%	20%	-18.9%
20%	-48.9%	20%	-26.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 81% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -45% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -23% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$554 vs −$147 · ×3.76 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage

Net worth$53

Realized+$647

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)30%

Wins / losses3 / 7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)10 / 11

History coverage164d

Avg bet$599

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown60%

Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Argentina?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$54	$53	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me	Jun 27	$99	−$44	-45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Feb 25	$15	−$15	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Feb 25	$786	−$772	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Feb 25	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Feb 25	$110	−$110	-100%
US government shutdown Saturday?	Feb 04	$2,988	+$627	+21%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Jan 16	$505	−$22	-4%
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Jan 15	$770	−$57	-7%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?	Jan 15	$247	+$316	+128%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	Jan 15	$1,002	+$718	+72%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Argentina?	BUY Yes	4¢	$55	1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me	SELL Yes	0¢	$54	1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me	BUY Yes	1¢	$99	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$15	121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	SELL Up	1¢	$15	121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$86	121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$700	121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$10	121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$10	121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$100	121d
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY No	25¢	$389	147d
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY No	26¢	$599	147d
US government shutdown Saturday?	SELL No	47¢	$445	148d
US government shutdown Saturday?	SELL No	47¢	$490	148d
US government shutdown Saturday?	SELL No	47¢	$16	148d
US government shutdown Saturday?	SELL No	47¢	$417	148d
US government shutdown Saturday?	SELL No	47¢	$17	148d
US government shutdown Saturday?	SELL No	47¢	$135	148d
US government shutdown Saturday?	SELL No	47¢	$828	148d
US government shutdown Saturday?	SELL No	47¢	$1,256	148d
US government shutdown Saturday?	SELL No	47¢	$11	148d
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY No	26¢	$2,000	148d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	SELL No	66¢	$484	162d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	BUY No	69¢	$505	162d
Will the US strike Somalia next?	SELL No	41¢	$153	162d
Will the US strike Somalia next?	SELL No	38¢	$134	162d
Will the US strike Somalia next?	SELL No	40¢	$87	162d
Will the US strike Somalia next?	SELL No	41¢	$131	162d
Will the US strike Somalia next?	BUY No	44¢	$54	162d
Will the US strike Somalia next?	BUY No	41¢	$70	162d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.94 · official $53.09 (match) · 42 history records