Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dd7…8a4f other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,654 (-1%) realized −$1,654 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%25W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,419per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$26
14 days−$194
30 days−$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$1,375
politics 34% −$84
sports 14% −$204
world 2% −$4
economics 1% −$2
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -5.8% -14.8% 9% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 105 +1.0% -8.6% 10% 6% -9.6%
all 143 -3.7% -12.9% 17% 10% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 10% -10.3%
10% -21.2% 10% -18.9%
15% -28.8% 8% -26.7%
20% -35.8% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,074) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$22 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized−$1,654
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses25 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,419
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $349 $350 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $4,932 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7,510 −$8 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $4,455 −$6 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,377 −$4 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $5,136 −$7 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,634 −$5 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 09 $2,456 −$4 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,382 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $3,524 −$4 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,336 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $81 −$81 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,854 −$6 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,269 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $418 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $565 +$1 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $462 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,067 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $55 +$55 +101%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,801 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $3,124 −$3 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,890 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,097 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $1,358 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,767 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,219 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,432 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $3,523 −$4 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $1,193 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $1,282 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $2,618 −$3 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $2,749 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $849 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $850 2h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $549 3h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $550 6h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $661 21h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $662 23h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $779 45h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $780 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,018 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,020 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,025 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,026 3d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,023 3d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,025 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,022 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,024 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $349 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,351 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,353 8d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,341 8d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,343 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,182 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,183 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,377 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,379 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,380 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,382 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,345 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,347 10d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,340 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.61 · official $349.61 (match) · 505 history records