Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1D 0x1dd7…ae72 crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-19%) realized −$33 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%18W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$14
crypto 32% +$1
sports 12% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -33.2% -39.5% 25% 25% -42.0%
≤30d 53 -20.0% -27.6% 34% 34% -30.9%
≤90d 53 -20.0% -27.6% 34% 34% -30.9%
all 53 -20.0% -27.6% 34% 34% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 34% -30.9%
10% -34.5% 34% -37.5%
15% -40.9% 32% -43.5%
20% -46.7% 23% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses18 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage10d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+18%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +45%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$6 +529%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$5 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 16h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 17h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 17h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 19h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.63 · official $26.63 (match) · 106 history records