Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:04:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dd6…c239 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$160 (-24%) realized −$161 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$159
7 days−$170
14 days−$164
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$161
sports 26% −$3
crypto 3% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -18.9% -26.7% 60% 25% -41.7%
≤30d 40 -13.4% -21.6% 52% 22% -33.2%
≤90d 40 -13.4% -21.6% 52% 22% -33.2%
all 40 -13.4% -21.6% 52% 22% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 22% -33.2%
10% -29.1% 12% -39.6%
15% -36.0% 10% -45.4%
20% -42.2% 8% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage10d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? No 85¢ 100¢ $32 $37 +$6 (+18%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? No 93¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $81 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $127 +$7 +6%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $182 −$153 -84%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$2 -51%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 $0 +5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 −$2 -51%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 $0 +24%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -51%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$8 -28%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 $0 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 $0 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 +$8 +87%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $13 −$4 -26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$2 +11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 $0 +3%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 $0 -11%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 $0 +10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 $0 -5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 +$7 +79%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 93¢ $3 53m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 93¢ $3 53m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 93¢ $3 53m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 55m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $32 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 96¢ $34 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 96¢ $90 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 94¢ $32 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 94¢ $32 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $32 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $47 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $31 27h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 78¢ $8 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 71¢ $16 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $18 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $32 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $21 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $32 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $32 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 87¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 20¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 90¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.37 · official $46.37 (match) · 216 history records