Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1D 0x1dd6…8577 crypto 1410 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$20,120 (-41%) realized −$20,150 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%721W / 684L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$4,125
sports 12% −$555
politics 0% +$399
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 -17.5% -25.4% 47% 46% -26.7%
≤30d 655 -7.5% -16.3% 51% 50% -17.1%
≤90d 1405 -6.5% -15.4% 51% 49% -17.4%
all 1405 -6.5% -15.4% 51% 49% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 49% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 45% -25.3%
15% -30.9% 38% -32.5%
20% -37.7% 31% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$29 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$20,150
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses721 / 684
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1405 / 1410
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Maria Sakkari 49¢ 64¢ $108 $140 +$32 (+30%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Song Yadong next? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-49%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$15 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$14 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$17 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$15 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$27 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$5 -68%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $40 −$33 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$34 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$16 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $29 +$15 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$11 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $24 +$14 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 49¢ $100 43m
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 49¢ $6 44m
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 49¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $38 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $59 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.18 · official $147.18 (match) · 3500 history records