Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1dd3…bee3
crypto · 792 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$35 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$55
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses449 / 327
Open positions16
Markets (closed)776 / 792
History coverage46d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 16 History 776 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$66
14 days+$57
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? No 95¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? No 95¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Yes 16¢ 43¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+174%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Yes 15¢ 28¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 23? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 2? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C or higher on May 22? No 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 7? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +37%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $55 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $28 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$8 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +376%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 −$4 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$10 +698%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 10? Jun 11 $16 +$2 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 10? Jun 11 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$10 +963%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 10 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 09 $7 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$4 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 68% −$37
weather 31% +$30
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 0m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $26 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $46 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $7 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 19h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $8 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +34.3% +21.5% 78% 47% +0.5%
≤30d 469 -11.5% -19.9% 46% 41% -14.2%
≤90d 776 -8.1% -16.8% 58% 55% -9.6%
all 776 -8.1% -16.8% 58% 55% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 55% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 47% -18.3%
15% -32.0% 21% -26.2%
20% -38.7% 21% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.06 · official $55.06 (match) · 2000 history records