Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:53:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1D 0x1dd2…9e07 sports 1512 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,993 (+6%) realized +$2,855 · open +$138
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%650W / 776L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day40.8pace
Fees−$643est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4,408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$220
7 days−$139
14 days+$1,260
30 days+$875
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,255
other 1% −$56
crypto 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 353 -1.4% -10.8% 48% 47% -10.3%
≤30d 1217 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 45% -7.5%
≤90d 1426 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 45% -7.3%
all 1426 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 45% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 45% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 44% -16.2%
15% -26.8% 42% -24.3%
20% -34.0% 39% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$22 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$4,408
Realized+$2,855
Unrealized+$138
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses650 / 776
Est. fees paid−$643
Open positions86
Markets (closed)1426 / 1512
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 86 History 1426 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Over 54¢ 67¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Stefano Travaglia 76¢ 86¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 77¢ 86¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Griekspoor vs. Shimabukuro: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 77¢ 86¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Set 1 Winner: Wang vs Gao Wang 78¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jil Teichmann 70¢ 78¢ $88 $99 +$11 (+12%)
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Darwin Blanch 46¢ 44¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif Mayar Sherif 82¢ 70¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 61¢ 64¢ $77 $80 +$3 (+4%)
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jacopo Vasami 72¢ 76¢ $75 $79 +$4 (+5%)
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 21.5 Under 56¢ 70¢ $62 $77 +$15 (+25%)
Set Handicap: Jones (-1.5) vs Gibson (+1.5) Gibson 80¢ 84¢ $74 $77 +$3 (+4%)
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva Alina Charaeva 76¢ 81¢ $71 $76 +$5 (+7%)
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli Facundo Acosta 74¢ 81¢ $68 $74 +$7 (+10%)
Chidekh vs. Smith: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 75¢ 71¢ $76 $72 −$4 (-5%)
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Gilles Arnaud Bailly 66¢ 72¢ $64 $69 +$5 (+8%)
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Daniil Medvedev 72¢ 76¢ $63 $67 +$4 (+6%)
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Dayana Yastremska 69¢ 80¢ $56 $64 +$9 (+15%)
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Max Alcala Gurri 67¢ 74¢ $58 $64 +$6 (+10%)
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Manoj Dhamne Manas 65¢ 68¢ $60 $63 +$2 (+4%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 72¢ 72¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-1%)
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Felix Balshaw 67¢ 70¢ $59 $62 +$3 (+5%)
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Raphael Perot 66¢ 68¢ $60 $62 +$1 (+2%)
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jan Choinski 70¢ 68¢ $63 $61 −$2 (-4%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Karen Khachanov 68¢ 70¢ $58 $60 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $34 +$33 +97%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $24 +$22 +93%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $55 +$60 +109%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Jun 14 $29 +$29 +101%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Sakatsume vs Dudeney Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $101 −$33 -33%
Set Handicap: Grabher (-1.5) vs Brancaccio (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$3 -3%
Nikola Bartunkova vs. Coco Gauff: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$3 -3%
Alexander Shevchenko vs. Genaro Alberto Olivieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$3 -3%
Set Handicap: Kudermetova (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$3 -3%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $71 −$21 -30%
Polina Kudermetova vs. Sinja Kraus: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $53 −$1 -2%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $45 +$28 +62%
Poznan: Alexander Shevchenko vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Jun 14 $57 −$16 -28%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $71 +$63 +90%
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Mochizuki (+1.5) Jun 14 $47 +$30 +65%
Mochizuki vs. Zheng: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $86 +$80 +93%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $48 +$30 +62%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $37 +$32 +86%
Set Handicap: McDonald (-1.5) vs Kjaer (+1.5) Jun 14 $48 +$29 +60%
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 14 $80 −$9 -12%
Set 2 Winner: Kudermetova vs Kraus Jun 14 $52 −$2 -3%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $101 −$3 -3%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $43 +$42 +97%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $58 +$29 +50%
Svajda vs. Damm: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $39 +$31 +79%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $101 −$3 -3%
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$3 -3%
Montgomery vs. Krejcikova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $102 −$2 -2%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Krejcikova vs. Linette: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $22 +$23 +105%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 14 $15 +$24 +158%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 14 $12 +$23 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brooksby vs. Damm: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 62¢ $44 16m
Set Handicap: Wang (-1.5) vs Gao (+1.5) BUY Wang 70¢ $56 18m
Set 1 Winner: Wang vs Gao BUY Wang 78¢ $101 21m
Chidekh vs. Smith: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 75¢ $77 1h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 46¢ $102 1h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson BUY Kajsa Rinaldo Persson 36¢ $21 1h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 41¢ $21 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 39¢ $23 1h
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru BUY Miriam Bulgaru 69¢ $63 2h
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 3h
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 3h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Grigor Dimitrov 62¢ $51 4h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 65¢ $63 5h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 49¢ $31 5h
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Emma Raducanu 59¢ $33 5h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Magdalena Frech 52¢ $37 5h
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 82¢ $101 5h
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Juan Pablo Ficovich 54¢ $43 6h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 70¢ $89 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $20 6h
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Kopriva BUY Zverev 81¢ $60 7h
Rublev vs. Hurkacz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $47 7h
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 58¢ $39 7h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Gauthier Onclin 54¢ $31 7h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 BUY Over 36¢ $14 7h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Vera Zvonareva 61¢ $36 7h
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Elias Ymer 54¢ $27 7h
Rinderknech vs. Medjedovic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 54¢ $33 8h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 56¢ $43 8h
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 76¢ $72 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,407.78 · official $4,395.80 (match) · 3500 history records