Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:58:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dd1…a156 world 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$43,017 (+22%) realized +$5,720 · open +$4,998
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +336% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +222% what you keep after slip
Net edge+222%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate63%24W / 14L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,366per market
Trades / day508.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$47,423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% +$10,779
other 3% −$248
finance 1% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+294.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +336.2% +294.6% 63% 47% +4.1%
≤30d 38 +336.2% +294.6% 63% 47% +4.1%
≤90d 38 +336.2% +294.6% 63% 47% +4.1%
all 38 +336.2% +294.6% 63% 47% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover508.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +294.6% 47% +4.1%
10% +256.9% 39% -5.9%
15% ← realistic here +222.4% 37% -15.0%
20% +190.8% 34% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +336% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,594) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +105% → late +567% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
34.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$767 vs −$907 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$47,423
Realized+$5,720
Unrealized+$4,998
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses24 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions53
Markets (closed)38 / 57
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3,366
Trades / day508.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 58¢ 94¢ $9,988 $16,157 +$6,169 (+62%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $5,501 $5,914 +$413 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 96¢ $3,878 $5,561 +$1,683 (+43%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 80¢ 92¢ $2,652 $3,033 +$382 (+14%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 92¢ 100¢ $2,695 $2,927 +$232 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 24¢ 15¢ $3,416 $2,146 −$1,270 (-37%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $1,170 $1,228 +$58 (+5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 23¢ 19¢ $1,084 $913 −$171 (-16%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 48¢ 38¢ $976 $777 −$199 (-20%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $709 $747 +$38 (+5%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $659 $735 +$76 (+12%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 88¢ 92¢ $644 $674 +$29 (+5%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $613 $629 +$16 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 87¢ 88¢ $618 $625 +$7 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $906 $602 −$304 (-34%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 76¢ $668 $591 −$78 (-12%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $542 $549 +$7 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $396 $394 −$2 (-1%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $337 $355 +$18 (+5%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $361 $341 −$21 (-6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 76¢ 77¢ $286 $290 +$3 (+1%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 78¢ $243 $254 +$11 (+5%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $390 $242 −$148 (-38%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 94¢ 91¢ $244 $237 −$7 (-3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 42¢ 36¢ $230 $196 −$34 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 15 $25 +$412 +1622%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 15 $2 +$1,737 +87802%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 15 $7 +$284 +3861%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 15 $305 −$287 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? Jun 15 $106 +$518 +491%
SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$19 -264%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3,271 −$4,192 -128%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? Jun 15 $274 −$372 -136%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Jun 15 $128 +$1,544 +1211%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Jun 15 $84 +$857 +1023%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 15 $25 +$3 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$9 +45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 15 $80 −$568 -707%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Jun 15 $9 +$4,024 +42641%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $932 −$3,407 -366%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Jun 15 $18 +$226 +1270%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 15 $20 −$613 -3063%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $3,180 +$3,962 +125%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $9,043 +$1,740 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $804 +$251 +31%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $5,221 +$197 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1,087 +$189 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $412 +$251 +61%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $9,598 −$1,255 -13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2,405 −$1,732 -72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $2,256 +$371 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $913 −$145 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $491 −$31 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $1,097 +$44 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $722 +$29 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $1,746 +$38 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $1,997 −$53 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $3,084 +$110 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $2,213 +$64 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1,896 +$326 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $487 +$1,228 +252%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 95¢ $95 2m
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 93¢ $186 3m
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $89 3m
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $2 3m
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $90 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $137 12m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $90 12m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $87 12m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $86 12m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $86 12m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $29 29m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $347 29m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $76 29m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $24 29m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $65 29m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $23 29m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $77 29m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 44m
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 36¢ $10 58m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $62 59m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 59m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $42 59m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL No 58¢ $58 59m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $46 59m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $43 59m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL No 57¢ $57 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47,422.78 · official $47,425.61 (match) · 3500 history records