Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1dcd…78db
crypto · 143 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$25 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses77 / 64
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage100d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 2 History 141 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Sabres vs. Canadiens Canadiens 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 13 $2 +$1 +73%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 12 $30 −$4 -14%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $30 −$4 -12%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $15 +$3 +21%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $10 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $41 +$35 +86%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $30 +$30 +98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $8 +$1 +8%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 08 $20 +$6 +29%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $20 +$6 +29%
AHL: Ontario Reign vs. Coachella Valley Firebirds May 07 $5 −$2 -33%
AHL: Providence Bruins vs. Springfield Thunderbirds May 07 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 06 $10 +$5 +52%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 +$6 +60%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 01 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 29 $3 +$4 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 28 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 26 $10 +$19 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 25 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 25 $7 +$8 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 13 $15 +$12 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 13 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 13 $9 +$5 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 8? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 8? Apr 08 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 7? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 8? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 8? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 7? Apr 08 $14 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 40% −$32
crypto 39% +$28
weather 16% −$14
other 4% −$7
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 45h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 47h
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 62¢ $20 29d
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ $30 30d
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ $20 30d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 59¢ $10 31d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 57¢ $2 31d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 77¢ $10 32d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 82¢ $5 32d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 77¢ $10 33d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 56¢ $30 33d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 57¢ $30 33d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 82¢ $10 33d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 65¢ $10 33d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 53¢ $41 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 39¢ $20 35d
Knicks vs. 76ers SELL Knicks 100¢ $60 35d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 49¢ $10 36d
Lakers vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 100¢ $6 36d
Hurricanes vs. Flyers BUY Hurricanes 61¢ $10 36d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 50¢ $10 36d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 88¢ $5 36d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 50¢ $10 36d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 61¢ $10 36d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons SELL Pistons 60¢ $10 36d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 61¢ $10 36d
AHL: Ontario Reign vs. Coachella Valley Firebirds SELL Ontario Reign 55¢ $3 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -52.8% -57.3% 33% 33% -71.3%
≤30d 4 -64.6% -68.0% 25% 25% -91.2%
≤90d 92 -13.5% -21.7% 43% 38% -16.5%
all 141 +0.1% -9.5% 55% 45% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 45% -12.0%
10% -18.1% 40% -20.4%
15% -26.0% 37% -28.1%
20% -33.3% 34% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.95 · official $6.95 (match) · 365 history records