Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1D 0x1dcd…0320 sports 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-52.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -47.0% -52.1% 25% 25% -37.3%
≤30d 4 -47.0% -52.1% 25% 25% -37.3%
≤90d 4 -47.0% -52.1% 25% 25% -37.3%
all 4 -47.0% -52.1% 25% 25% -37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.1% 25% -37.3%
10% -56.7% 25% -43.3%
15% -60.8% 0% -48.8%
20% -64.7% 0% -53.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$56 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $221 −$41 -19%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu Jun 19 $99 +$30 +30%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $107 −$106 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $70 1m
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $11 2m
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $108 56m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Ann Li 16¢ $21 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu SELL Ayla Aksu 46¢ $129 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu BUY Ayla Aksu 34¢ $99 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $99 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 43¢ $107 2h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $113 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records