Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dcc…87a2 crypto 716 markets active 2d ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$447 (-5%) realized −$447 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%335W / 718L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day62.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$318
world 3% −$7
other 3% −$148
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 408 -79.4% -81.4% 6% 6% -89.8%
≤30d 635 -52.6% -57.1% 20% 17% -58.9%
≤90d 1053 -32.8% -39.2% 32% 28% -40.5%
all 1053 -32.8% -39.2% 32% 28% -40.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.2% 28% -40.5%
10% ← realistic here -45.0% 25% -46.2%
15% -50.3% 21% -51.4%
20% -55.2% 17% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$447
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses335 / 718
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1053 / 716
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day62.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1053 Trades
no open positions (489 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$6 -127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$11 -821%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$7 +3587%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records