Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dcc…e8cc sports 1075 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,742 (-3%) realized −$1,742 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%482W / 593L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$863est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$195
14 days−$438
30 days−$571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,255
other 0% −$35
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -39.9% -45.6% 8% 8% -36.7%
≤30d 172 -4.1% -13.2% 43% 42% -13.3%
≤90d 1075 -6.4% -15.3% 45% 42% -14.5%
all 1075 -6.4% -15.3% 45% 42% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 42% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 37% -22.7%
15% -30.8% 34% -30.2%
20% -37.6% 28% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$43 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,742
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses482 / 593
Est. fees paid−$863
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1075 / 1075
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1075 Trades
no open positions (229 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Zagreb: Ivan Biletic vs Saba Purtseladze Jun 24 $26 −$10 -39%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 24 $274 −$132 -48%
Rainbow Six Siege: Chiefs Esports Club vs ENTERPRISE Esports (BO1) - A Jun 22 $9 −$3 -30%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner Jun 22 $165 −$12 -7%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $7 −$1 -18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$13 -65%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $52 −$2 -3%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $16 +$17 +108%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $19 −$18 -95%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 18 $50 −$6 -12%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $42 −$41 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $179 −$174 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $72 +$130 +180%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $114 −$112 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $44 −$43 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $98 −$96 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $150 +$70 +47%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $135 +$48 +36%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $37 +$74 +201%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $52 −$48 -94%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Rebels Gaming (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 09 $56 −$55 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 09 $34 −$33 -98%
Bratislava: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 09 $33 −$1 -3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $419 −$415 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $413 −$410 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $113 −$110 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $205 −$201 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Secret vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $174 −$171 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $204 +$105 +52%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $25 −$24 -97%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $104 +$113 +108%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $95 +$115 +121%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $68 −$67 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 07 $39 −$38 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $59 +$47 +80%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $22 −$21 -93%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $20 +$31 +152%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire Jun 05 $70 +$85 +122%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Somerset Jun 05 $36 −$35 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $89 +$104 +116%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller Jun 05 $70 −$69 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $85 −$81 -96%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran Jun 05 $23 +$30 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Zagreb: Ivan Biletic vs Saba Purtseladze SELL Ivan Biletic 33¢ $16 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic SELL Ajla Tomljanovic 28¢ $142 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 52¢ $274 1h
ITF Zagreb: Ivan Biletic vs Saba Purtseladze BUY Ivan Biletic 52¢ $26 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Chiefs Esports Club vs ENTERPRISE Esports (BO1) - A BUY ENTERPRISE Esports 53¢ $3 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: Chiefs Esports Club vs ENTERPRISE Esports (BO1) - A SELL Chiefs Esports Club 49¢ $0 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: Chiefs Esports Club vs ENTERPRISE Esports (BO1) - A SELL Chiefs Esports Club 49¢ $6 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: Chiefs Esports Club vs ENTERPRISE Esports (BO1) - A BUY Chiefs Esports Club 51¢ $3 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: Chiefs Esports Club vs ENTERPRISE Esports (BO1) - A BUY Chiefs Esports Club 51¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 19¢ $7 2d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 19¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 19¢ $0 2d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 19¢ $0 2d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner SELL REKONIX 11¢ $6 2d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 13¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $165 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 14¢ $7 2d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 49¢ $47 2d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 49¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 50¢ $52 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 39¢ $20 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 9¢ $5 5d
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 69¢ $1 5d
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 43¢ $1 5d
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 44¢ $1 5d
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 44¢ $9 5d
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 44¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 98¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 36¢ $18 5d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 56¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records