trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | $360 | $334 | −$26 (-7%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 11¢ | $240 | $235 | −$6 (-2%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $125 | $126 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Spurs | 65¢ | 64¢ | $124 | $123 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 64¢ | 20¢ | $257 | $79 | −$178 (-69%) |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Spread: Spurs (-2.5) | Spurs | 63¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) | Nottingham Forest FC | 71¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) | Cavaliers | 52¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Spurs | 57¢ | 0¢ | $12 | $0 | −$12 (-100%) |
| Spread: Spurs (-2.5) | Spurs | 51¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $62 | $0 | −$62 (-100%) |
| Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $13 | $0 | −$13 (-100%) |
| Spread: Pistons (-4.5) | Pistons | 51¢ | 0¢ | $12 | $0 | −$12 (-100%) |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | Nuggets | 52¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) | Spurs | 48¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $74 | $0 | −$74 (-100%) |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Lakers | 48¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Spread: Spurs (-10.5) | Timberwolves | 52¢ | 0¢ | $12 | $0 | −$12 (-100%) |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $188 | $0 | −$188 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $30 | +$17 | +56% |
| Spread: Spurs (-2.5) | Jun 05 | $51 | −$50 | -99% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $164 | +$205 | +125% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $179 | −$94 | -53% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 30 | $61 | −$61 | -100% |
| Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? | May 24 | $96 | +$97 | +101% |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) | May 23 | $25 | −$25 | -99% |
| Spread: Spurs (-2.5) | May 23 | $51 | −$50 | -99% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 23 | $12 | −$12 | -99% |
| Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? | May 21 | $38 | +$84 | +223% |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) | May 20 | $25 | −$25 | -98% |
| Spread: Knicks (-7.5) | May 20 | $13 | +$13 | +105% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 19 | $1 | +$2 | +197% |
| Spread: Pistons (-4.5) | May 17 | $13 | −$12 | -99% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | May 16 | $25 | +$21 | +83% |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? | May 11 | $75 | −$74 | -99% |
| Spread: Thunder (-9.5) | May 10 | $10 | +$10 | +101% |
| Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) | May 07 | $15 | −$15 | -99% |
| Spread: Spurs (-10.5) | May 06 | $13 | −$12 | -99% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 05 | $191 | −$188 | -98% |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? | May 05 | $26 | −$25 | -98% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? | May 05 | $63 | +$143 | +226% |
| Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) | May 04 | $76 | −$5 | -7% |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? | May 03 | $102 | +$243 | +238% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? | May 03 | $58 | +$85 | +145% |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | May 03 | $10 | +$24 | +238% |
| Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | May 02 | $13 | −$13 | -99% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | May 02 | $39 | +$56 | +146% |
| Spread: Celtics (-5.5) | May 01 | $25 | +$27 | +105% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Apr 30 | $25 | −$25 | -98% |
| Spread: Spurs (-5.5) | Apr 27 | $25 | +$27 | +109% |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | Apr 26 | $25 | −$25 | -99% |
| Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) | Apr 25 | $38 | +$27 | +70% |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | Apr 25 | $26 | +$24 | +92% |
| Spread: Knicks (-5.5) | Apr 23 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | Apr 23 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5 | Apr 23 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Spread: Rockets (-4.5) | Apr 23 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5 | Apr 20 | $12 | +$12 | +93% |
| Barcelona Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Andrey Rublev | Apr 17 | $4 | −$3 | -58% |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? | Apr 16 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) | Apr 16 | $26 | +$19 | +73% |
| Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | Apr 15 | $62 | −$62 | -100% |
| Spread: Hornets (-5.5) | Apr 15 | $12 | +$13 | +101% |
| Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | Apr 15 | $30 | +$12 | +41% |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-12? | Apr 14 | $124 | −$124 | -100% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? | Apr 14 | $45 | −$8 | -19% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +56.4% | +41.5% | 100% | 100% | +41.5% |
| ≤30d | 15 | +6.0% | -4.1% | 47% | 47% | +9.7% |
| ≤90d | 47 | +6.1% | -4.0% | 45% | 45% | -3.2% |
| all | 47 | +6.1% | -4.0% | 45% | 45% | -3.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.0% | 45% | -3.2% |
| 10% | -13.2% | 45% | -12.4% |
| 15% | -21.6% | 45% | -20.9% |
| 20% | -29.3% | 43% | -28.6% |