Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1D 0x1dc2…b336 crypto 427 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$329 (-3%) realized −$351 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate48%202W / 220L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day46.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$152
14 days−$152
30 days−$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$332
other 5% +$31
sports 3% −$89
world 1% −$20
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -20.4% -28.0% 39% 35% -22.5%
≤30d 371 -11.2% -19.7% 46% 32% -14.4%
≤90d 422 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 33% -13.5%
all 422 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 33% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 33% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 24% -21.8%
15% -32.0% 20% -29.4%
20% -38.7% 15% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized−$351
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses202 / 220
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)422 / 427
History coverage50d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day46.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 422 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? No 57¢ 57¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $56 $59 +$4 (+7%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 50¢ $40 $51 +$11 (+27%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 61¢ 74¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+21%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $90 +$27 +30%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 21 $103 −$12 -12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $45 +$15 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $123 +$77 +62%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $26 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$26 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$33 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$50 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $94 −$9 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $93 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$12 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$13 -50%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 28 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 28 $53 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 28 $50 −$7 -14%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 52¢ $20 3m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 70¢ $10 39m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 78¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 42¢ $117 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $90 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 13¢ $90 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $4 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $10 24h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $61 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $41 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 29h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $45 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $123 2d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ $9 2d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ $7 2d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ $3 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $57 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.96 · official $257.96 (match) · 2938 history records