Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dc1…2aa5 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$119 (+18%) realized +$118 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$87
14 days+$86
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$42
sports 25% +$120
crypto 5% −$7
world 3% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +5.8% -4.3% 35% 35% +9.5%
≤30d 24 +5.4% -4.6% 33% 33% +9.1%
≤90d 24 +5.4% -4.6% 33% 33% +9.1%
all 24 +5.4% -4.6% 33% 33% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 33% +9.1%
10% -13.7% 33% -1.4%
15% -22.1% 25% -10.9%
20% -29.7% 21% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$7 · ×3.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$118
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage7d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $114 $115 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 27 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $27 +$7 +24%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $32 −$10 -31%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$13 -62%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9 +$12 +133%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -5%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$2 -32%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -96%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$2 -43%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 +$17 +97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $13 −$11 -80%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $74 −$31 -42%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $27 −$5 -17%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $36 +$109 +306%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $33 $0 -1%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $13 +$5 +37%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 19 $9 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 44¢ $14 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 57¢ $84 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $27 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 57¢ $28 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes $8 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 57¢ $22 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $253 11h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 60¢ $22 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.00 · official $115.00 (match) · 84 history records