Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1db8…524e crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (199 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$140 (-3%) realized −$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate62%24W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day199.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (199 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +25.6% +13.6% 62% 49% -13.7%
≤30d 39 +25.6% +13.6% 62% 49% -13.7%
≤90d 39 +25.6% +13.6% 62% 49% -13.7%
all 39 +25.6% +13.6% 62% 49% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover199.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.6% 49% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here +2.8% 33% -21.9%
15% -7.2% 28% -29.5%
20% -16.3% 13% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +48% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$57 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses24 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage1d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day199.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $83 −$13 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $78 +$26 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $245 −$236 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $202 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $258 +$32 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $105 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $301 −$256 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $162 +$304 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $732 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $71 +$25 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $252 +$42 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $107 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $108 +$41 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $102 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $44 −$30 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $56 +$27 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $42 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET Jun 29 $57 −$8 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 28 $36 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $306 −$92 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$36 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 28 $93 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 28 $241 −$18 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 28 $92 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 213 history records