Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1D 0x1db5…d13c weather 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$49 (+4%) realized +$146 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%20W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days+$219
14 days+$299
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 75% +$54
sports 12% +$9
tech 11% −$57
other 2% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +43.6% +29.9% 50% 50% +43.0%
≤30d 45 +29.0% +16.7% 44% 42% +3.0%
≤90d 45 +29.0% +16.7% 44% 42% +3.0%
all 45 +29.0% +16.7% 44% 42% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.7% 42% +3.0%
10% +5.5% 42% -6.8%
15% -4.7% 40% -15.8%
20% -14.0% 40% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +56% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$19 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$146
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)45 / 53
History coverage19d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? Yes 43¢ 28¢ $22 $14 −$8 (-36%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $33 +$51 +153%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? Jun 28 $20 +$35 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Jun 27 $27 +$47 +174%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$8 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $24 +$49 +207%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 25 $9 +$38 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 25? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $23 +$50 +223%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Jun 22 $23 −$22 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $61 +$50 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $25 +$38 +153%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$28 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $22 −$13 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $23 +$38 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 +$43 +258%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$39 +166%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 16 $17 −$16 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$36 +636%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $12 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -96%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $50 +$13 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$12 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$13 +131%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 +$9 +146%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $71 −$70 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $52 −$15 -29%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $52 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $36 0m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? SELL Yes 99¢ $84 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 43¢ $23 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 42¢ $23 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 38¢ $33 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 40¢ $34 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 42¢ $23 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 25? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 35¢ $27 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 31¢ $24 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 36¢ $23 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $61 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.97 · official $45.97 (match) · 87 history records