Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1D 0x1db3…edb7 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$40 (-19%) realized −$36 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$40
14 days−$40
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$64
other 23% −$2
sports 5% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +36.1% +23.2% 42% 36% -30.3%
≤30d 38 +29.0% +16.7% 39% 34% -31.1%
≤90d 38 +29.0% +16.7% 39% 34% -31.1%
all 38 +29.0% +16.7% 39% 34% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.7% 34% -31.1%
10% +5.5% 32% -37.6%
15% -4.7% 32% -43.7%
20% -14.0% 32% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)38 / 44
History coverage14d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$7 +62%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$26 +480%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$16 +1521%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Mitchell Krueger Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.47 · official $20.52 (match) · 102 history records