Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1D 0x1db2…daca other 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$585 (+10%) realized +$859 · open −$274
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%28W / 26L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$1,076now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$208
7 days+$731
14 days+$731
30 days+$731
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$93
sports 21% +$434
politics 16% −$316
finance 10% +$352
crypto 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +40.0% +26.7% 57% 51% +4.5%
≤30d 35 +40.0% +26.7% 57% 51% +4.5%
≤90d 35 +40.0% +26.7% 57% 51% +4.5%
all 54 +19.7% +8.3% 52% 48% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.3% 48% +1.8%
10% -2.0% 48% -7.9%
15% -11.5% 44% -16.8%
20% -20.2% 43% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$57 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$1,076
Realized+$859
Unrealized−$274
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses28 / 26
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage127d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 82¢ $500 $816 +$316 (+63%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $500 $184 −$316 (-63%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 34¢ 76¢ $34 $76 +$42 (+125%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $122 +$143 +117%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $76 −$76 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 +$20 +33%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $108 −$108 -100%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $88 −$84 -96%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $130 −$128 -98%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $233 −$229 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $77 −$39 -50%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $37 +$22 +58%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $22 +$42 +195%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $198 −$109 -55%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $274 +$210 +77%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $74 +$126 +170%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $58 +$142 +247%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $319 +$142 +44%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $47 +$13 +28%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$60 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $152 +$10 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$18 +55%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$59 +114%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $66 +$184 +278%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $70 +$81 +116%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 −$37 -63%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $161 +$303 +189%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,318 +$34 +3%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$102 +250%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 +$188 +92%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 +$111 +109%
Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to Score Feb 21 $40 −$40 -100%
US Lecce vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score Feb 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $33 +$27 +82%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-02-20? Feb 20 $40 +$33 +82%
Jagiellonia Białystok vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score Feb 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Club Brugge KV vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Feb 19 $10 +$7 +72%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Feb 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-15? Feb 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Udinese Calcio vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: Both Teams to Score Feb 15 $10 +$9 +92%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 15 $10 +$8 +82%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-13? Feb 14 $10 +$6 +61%
Como 1907 vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score Feb 14 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Feb 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 69¢ $69 9m
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $134 41m
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $131 45m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $69 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $122 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $25 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 81¢ $81 4h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $48 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $3 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $108 22h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) SELL Qatar 1¢ $3 23h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 24¢ $88 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 9¢ $90 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 7¢ $1 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 7¢ $5 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 7¢ $1 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 9¢ $18 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 7¢ $22 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 21¢ $20 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 21¢ $1 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 20¢ $62 24h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY No 9¢ $18 25h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY No 38¢ $6 25h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY No 41¢ $209 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 5¢ $7 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 52¢ $26 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 6¢ $0 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 62¢ $20 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,076.50 · official $1,074.00 (match) · 318 history records