Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1daf…7b2d
crypto · 325 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$34 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses118 / 203
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)321 / 325
History coverage89d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 4 History 321 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Team WE 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Over 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-02? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-03? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-30? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B REKONIX 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs ThunderTalk Gaming 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Tundra Esports 42¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega Sentinels 48¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BNK FEARX 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-03? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will FC Annecy win on 2026-05-09? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +111%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +46%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$3 +315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $4 +$4 +91%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $16 −$10 -58%
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $7 −$1 -14%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $3 −$2 -98%
Valorant: Sentinels vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas May 29 $3 +$8 +259%
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 27 $2 +$7 +351%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $3 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $6 +$3 +44%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 17 $3 +$3 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$4 +364%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$4 +364%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 +$2 +121%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $7 +$4 +63%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 46% −$33
other 33% −$47
sports 21% +$47
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 39¢ $3 4h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 7¢ $2 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 12h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 8¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 39¢ $1 28h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 32¢ $2 28h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 8¢ $0 29h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 8¢ $0 29h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 8¢ $0 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 29h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) SELL Team Liquid ID 5¢ $0 29h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) SELL Team Liquid ID 48¢ $8 30h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) BUY Team Liquid ID 20¢ $4 30h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 14d
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 14d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $1 14d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming 10¢ $2 14d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 4¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.6% -12.8% 40% 40% +4.7%
≤30d 51 -29.1% -35.8% 25% 25% -33.1%
≤90d 321 -12.1% -20.5% 37% 34% -12.0%
all 321 -12.1% -20.5% 37% 34% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 34% -12.0%
10% -28.1% 31% -20.4%
15% -35.0% 29% -28.1%
20% -41.4% 25% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.97 · official $5.99 (match) · 593 history records