Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dac…7834 other 55 markets active 3h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-1%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate19%10W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$9
other 25% −$14
sports 2% −$14
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -24.5%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.7% 11% 0% -12.5%
≤90d 42 -5.8% -14.8% 17% 2% -11.4%
all 54 -4.8% -13.8% 19% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 2% -10.4%
10% -22.1% 2% -19.0%
15% -29.6% 2% -26.8%
20% -36.5% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses10 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage604d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $104 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $49 $0 -0%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $9 +$4 +48%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? Mar 05 $29 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $9 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $24 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $18 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $4 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 3h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 27h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 28h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 4d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 8d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $9 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $11 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $11 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $11 16d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 20d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.32 · official $25.32 (match) · 251 history records