Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:12:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dac…749d other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$10
sports 22% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -35.7% -41.8% 33% 33% -22.9%
≤30d 3 -35.7% -41.8% 33% 33% -22.9%
≤90d 3 -35.7% -41.8% 33% 33% -22.9%
all 3 -35.7% -41.8% 33% 33% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.8% 33% -22.9%
10% -47.4% 33% -30.3%
15% -52.4% 33% -37.0%
20% -57.1% 0% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -57%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.17 · official $2.17 (match) · 9 history records