Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1daa…555c other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$125 (-46%) realized −$125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$130
sports 27% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-58.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -53.8% -58.2% 29% 29% -65.4%
≤30d 7 -53.8% -58.2% 29% 29% -65.4%
≤90d 7 -53.8% -58.2% 29% 29% -65.4%
all 7 -53.8% -58.2% 29% 29% -65.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.2% 29% -65.4%
10% -62.2% 29% -68.7%
15% -65.8% 29% -71.7%
20% -69.2% 14% -74.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$31 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $36 +$28 +76%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $9 +$4 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 −$99 -97%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists Jun 29 $8 −$8 -98%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $25 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $42 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $61 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $8 2h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $20 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $9 4h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 4h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $25 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $36 4h
Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots AND Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to BUY 20¢ $63 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records