Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1da9…ff38 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% $0
other 34% −$4
politics 5% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 25% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 9 -9.5% -18.1% 22% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 11 -10.2% -18.7% 18% 0% -9.5%
all 29 -8.7% -17.4% 41% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -10.7%
10% -25.3% 0% -19.3%
15% -32.5% 0% -27.1%
20% -39.1% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage481d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $38 $0 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $0 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $29 +$2 +7%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $5 −$1 -26%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 26 $6 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 17 $7 $0 +6%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 11 $10 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 10 $11 $0 -1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? May 09 $1 −$1 -40%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 07 $3 $0 +4%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $12 $0 +4%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 19 $15 −$4 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $31 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $14 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $17 38h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $0 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 5¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $30 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $30 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $30 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $31 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 87¢ $29 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $29 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $30 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $5 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $26 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.95 · official $30.27 (match) · 98 history records