Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1D 0x1da8…3cea crypto 335 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$118 (-2%) realized −$132 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%179W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$151
7 days+$50
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$388
other 8% −$45
sports 3% +$162
weather 2% +$28
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +8.3% -2.0% 56% 55% -7.2%
≤30d 111 +5.8% -4.3% 56% 55% -10.5%
≤90d 333 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 53% -13.4%
all 333 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 53% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 53% -13.4%
10% -20.4% 47% -21.7%
15% -28.1% 37% -29.2%
20% -35.1% 27% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses179 / 154
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)333 / 335
History coverage74d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 81¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $91 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$4 +29%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$2 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $56 +$39 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$19 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $86 −$41 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$22 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -74%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $8 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.95 · official $33.54 (match) · 932 history records