Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1da1…2df3 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate20%11W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$17
world 34% −$5
politics 14% −$2
sports 8% +$3
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 10 -2.3% -11.6% 30% 0% -10.9%
all 55 +1.0% -8.7% 20% 5% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 5% -10.9%
10% -17.4% 5% -19.4%
15% -25.4% 4% -27.2%
20% -32.7% 4% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage251d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $56 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $51 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $56 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $110 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $36 +$1 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $41 −$6 -14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 24 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Jan 31 $8 −$3 -43%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Jan 31 $26 −$14 -52%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $10 +$3 +30%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Nov 20 $9 $0 -3%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $88 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Osasuna win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 24 $3 $0 +4%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 23 $2 +$1 +84%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Oct 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21? Oct 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 20 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 19 $2 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 17 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $56 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $17 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $51 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $51 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $11 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $26 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $17 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $19 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $56 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $56 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $38 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $36 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 45¢ $20 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 45¢ $20 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $35 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $22 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $32 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $54 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 20d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 42¢ $13 85d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 203d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 203d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 203d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.20 · official $55.20 (match) · 225 history records