Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:37:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1da0…1ce7 crypto 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 570d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-3%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%120W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$3
other 23% +$1
politics 12% −$62
world 4% $0
weather 3% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 23 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 96 +0.3% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.3%
all 124 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 0% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -11.9%
10% -19.0% 0% -20.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -28.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

570d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses120 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage570d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chris Carr win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elect Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27? May 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 26? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will "COWARD by Lukas DHONT" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Fe May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tim Skelton be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? May 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17? May 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Croatia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 12? May 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 13 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April May 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? May 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 10? May 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 9? May 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 8? May 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? BUY No 99¢ $19 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $12 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $20 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $29 23d
Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elect BUY No 100¢ $17 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 25d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $13 27d
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 99¢ $11 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $19 28d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 29d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $17 29d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b BUY No 100¢ $13 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 30d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 32d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $20 32d
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $14 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 35d
Will "COWARD by Lukas DHONT" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Fe BUY No 100¢ $12 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.33 · official $56.33 (match) · 255 history records