Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1D 0x1d9f…9f3a sports 22 markets active 13h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$471 (+36%) realized +$471 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$412
other 13% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +54.1% +39.4% 45% 45% +23.3%
≤30d 22 +54.1% +39.4% 45% 45% +23.3%
≤90d 22 +54.1% +39.4% 45% 45% +23.3%
all 22 +54.1% +39.4% 45% 45% +23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.4% 45% +23.3%
10% +26.1% 45% +11.5%
15% +13.9% 41% +0.8%
20% +2.8% 36% -9.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +70% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$43 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$471
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage3d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $151 +$65 +43%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $132 +$122 +92%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$49 +238%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $91 −$89 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $19 +$43 +227%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $41 +$316 +772%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $146 −$115 -78%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $101 −$25 -24%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -97%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $85 +$67 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$83 +82%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $40 +$131 +325%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 16 $72 +$19 +26%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $18 +$79 +430%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 54¢ $15 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $20 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 13h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 13h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 13h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $14 35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $20 35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $36 36h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 36h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over $10 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $31 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $101 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 30¢ $19 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 24¢ $41 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $31 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 45¢ $76 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $17 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $61 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $49 2d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $153 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $27 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 2d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $85 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records