Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1D 0x1d9e…a429 crypto 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$117 (-43%) realized −$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$119
other 44% −$1
crypto 10% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.0% -12.2% 0% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 1 -3.0% -12.2% 0% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 12 +0.5% -9.1% 83% 0% -10.0%
all 13 -7.3% -16.1% 77% 0% -54.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 0% -54.2%
10% -24.1% 0% -58.6%
15% -31.5% 0% -62.6%
20% -38.2% 0% -66.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$40 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)13 / 23
History coverage177d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 16? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 16? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 16? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Solana reach $85 on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on June 16? No 100¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will XRP reach $1.45 on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $80 on June 16? No 99¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 16? No 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? May 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? May 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? May 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? May 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? May 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? May 02 $1 $0 +3%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 18 $102 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Red Wings Dec 21 $119 −$119 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Solana reach $80 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Solana reach $85 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will XRP reach $1.45 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 15h
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $13 45d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 68¢ $102 89d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 68¢ $88 89d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 89d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $1 89d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $1 89d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $1 89d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $1 89d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $1 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? BUY No 97¢ $1 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $1 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? BUY No 98¢ $1 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $1 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $1 89d
Capitals vs. Red Wings BUY Capitals 50¢ $119 176d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.24 · official $26.22 (match) · 55 history records