Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1D 0x1d9c…d3d8 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+2%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate99%100W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$47
crypto 12% +$1
economics 4% +$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.6% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 25 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.8%
all 101 +2.4% -7.3% 99% 3% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 3% -7.7%
10% -16.2% 3% -16.5%
15% -24.3% 2% -24.6%
20% -31.7% 1% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×48.73 per $1 lost it wins $48.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses100 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage469d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $77 $77 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $76 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $71 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $71 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on May 9? May 09 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 09 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 27 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 20 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 17 $73 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 11 $73 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Apr 05 $2 $0 +0%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 05 $62 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 29 $59 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on Mar Mar 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13? Mar 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 20 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 13 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 3? Mar 10 $68 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? Mar 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Mar 03 $15 +$30 +199%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in January? Feb 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026? Jan 29 $37 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 04 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jan 04 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 16? Dec 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 27 $31 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 15? Dec 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on November 26? Dec 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 26? Dec 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Dec 14 $2 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $77 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $76 5d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 10d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 13d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $71 19d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $71 23d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 32d
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 35d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 35d
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro BUY No 100¢ $3 38d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 39d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 39d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 50d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 58d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 60d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $73 67d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 73d
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? BUY No 100¢ $62 80d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $59 89d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $2 89d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $6 89d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $60 95d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $2 95d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on Mar BUY No 97¢ $1 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 95d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $68 105d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 124d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 BUY Yes 33¢ $15 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.12 · official $77.12 (match) · 203 history records