Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d99…0bca other 10 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-30%) realized −$23 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$20 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $12 $13 +$2 (+17%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+10%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 78¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+21%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 58¢ $12 $9 −$2 (-20%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-17%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 4¢ $14 $3 −$11 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 2d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 7d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 7d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 7d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 7d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 7d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $12 7d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $12 7d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $12 7d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.44 · official $82.44 (match) · 10 history records