Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d97…4483 sports 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+4%) realized +$62 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate91%80W / 8L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$55
14 days+$63
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$39
crypto 27% +$21
other 11% +$5
tech 1% −$6
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +0.6% -9.0% 93% 18% -5.5%
≤30d 88 -0.4% -9.9% 91% 16% -5.7%
≤90d 88 -0.4% -9.9% 91% 16% -5.7%
all 88 -0.4% -9.9% 91% 16% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 16% -5.7%
10% -18.5% 7% -14.7%
15% -26.4% 0% -23.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses80 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)88 / 92
History coverage10d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Over 91¢ 90¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+6%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? Yes 70¢ 59¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $53 +$1 +3%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 25 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $48 +$6 +12%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$7 +22%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$1 +6%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $21 $0 +1%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $11 $0 +4%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $57 +$3 +6%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $13 +$1 +7%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $44 +$11 +26%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $40 +$3 +9%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $22 +$2 +8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $4 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $6 $0 +5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +10%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $8 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $35 9m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $20 25m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 31m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $53 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $30 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 3h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 31¢ $4 3h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 76¢ $10 14h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $21 14h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $10 24h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 24h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $10 24h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 24h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $48 25h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $20 26h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $20 27h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $47 27h
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 28h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 87¢ $41 28h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 100¢ $7 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 30h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 85¢ $6 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 2d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY No 98¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.87 · official $94.87 (match) · 188 history records