Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1D 0x1d94…80da crypto 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$854per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2,247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$36
other 29% −$46
crypto 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 3 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 3 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 0% -12.8%
all 3 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 0% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -12.8%
10% -18.9% 0% -21.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -28.8%
20% -33.9% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$46 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2,247
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage5d
Avg bet$854
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 94¢ $2,211 $2,247 +$36 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $109 +$2 +2%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $996 −$46 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $2,211 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $69 40h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 89¢ $950 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $996 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,246.76 · official $2,246.76 (match) · 8 history records