Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1D 0x1d8f…25f5 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$70 (+2%) realized +$85 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$1,546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$384
sports 29% −$325
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +22.6% +10.9% 86% 71% -6.8%
≤30d 7 +22.6% +10.9% 86% 71% -6.8%
≤90d 7 +22.6% +10.9% 86% 71% -6.8%
all 7 +22.6% +10.9% 86% 71% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.9% 71% -6.8%
10% +0.3% 71% -15.7%
15% -9.4% 57% -23.9%
20% -18.3% 43% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$565 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,546
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $502 $504 +$3 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $501 $498 −$3 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $500 $485 −$15 (-3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $695 +$67 +10%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $570 −$565 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $563 +$308 +55%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $607 +$235 +39%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 +$19 +55%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $14 +$5 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 +$5 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $59 36m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $504 38m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $504 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $193 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 34h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 76¢ $50 43h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $520 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $506 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 78¢ $151 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 70¢ $1 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 70¢ $355 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 70¢ $100 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $26 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $14 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,546.06 · official $1,546.06 (match) · 27 history records