Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:41:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d8c…5377 crypto 800 markets active 1d ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (235 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,608 (+37%) realized +$3,608 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%373W / 743L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day234.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (235 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 976 -36.7% -42.8% 30% 22% -24.6%
≤30d 1116 -30.8% -37.4% 33% 26% -21.7%
≤90d 1116 -30.8% -37.4% 33% 26% -21.7%
all 1116 -30.8% -37.4% 33% 26% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover234.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.4% 26% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here -43.4% 22% -29.2%
15% -48.9% 19% -36.1%
20% -53.9% 15% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,608
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses373 / 743
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1116 / 800
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day234.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1116 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records