Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1D 0x1d8c…757a other 923 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$52,277 (+51%) realized +$53,245 · open −$968
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate20%173W / 674L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day46.1pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$18,418
world 24% −$17,035
sports 23% −$21,452
tech 10% −$4,278
politics 10% −$8,204
culture 3% −$1,871
economics 2% −$755
crypto 2% −$717
weather 0% −$301
finance 0% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-64.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 +51.2% +36.8% 27% 18% -60.6%
≤30d 215 +4.3% -5.6% 25% 14% -78.5%
≤90d 745 -60.6% -64.4% 10% 5% -90.7%
all 745 -60.6% -64.4% 10% 5% -90.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -64.4% 5% -90.7%
10% ← realistic here -67.8% 4% -91.6%
15% -70.9% 3% -92.4%
20% -73.7% 2% -93.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -93% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$108 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1,260
Realized+$53,245
Unrealized−$968
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses173 / 674
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions336
Markets (closed)847 / 923
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$110
Trades / day46.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 336 History 847 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party win the CA-28 House seat? No 90¢ 90¢ $84 $83 −$0 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 99¢ $2 $61 +$59 (+3217%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? No 97¢ 100¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 30? Yes 74¢ 86¢ $37 $43 +$6 (+17%)
Will Japan win the World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? No 86¢ 86¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026? No 9¢ 6¢ $30 $21 −$8 (-28%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+4317%)
Will Warren Buffett be 2nd richest person on December 31? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 23¢ $1 $19 +$19 (+3242%)
Will Jensen Huang be 2nd richest person on December 31? No 100¢ 96¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 96¢ $1 $19 +$19 (+2749%)
Will Elon Musk be 2nd richest person on December 31? No 95¢ 95¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 3? Yes 58¢ 50¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-14%)
Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next? Yes 2¢ 68¢ $1 $18 +$18 (+3123%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $18 +$18 (+3586%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 30? No 75¢ 92¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Will Larry Ellison be 2nd richest person on December 31? No 99¢ 91¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Yes 76¢ 94¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+23%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes -0¢ 39¢ $-0 $16 +$16 (-52172%)
Will Joe Pyfer be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $1 $15 +$14 (+2231%)
Will Steve Ballmer be 2nd richest person on December 31? No 100¢ 75¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 164 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luis Enrique be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 29 $27 −$28 -103%
Will Jesper Bratt win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Mathis Preston be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will TISZA win 42-46% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will February be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 T Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Karim Adeyemi be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga se Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in April 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Marcelo Alves win Big Brother Brasil 26? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Fabian Lysell win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Owen Tippett win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mackenzie Blackwood win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Tottenham finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jonathan Burkardt be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundeslig Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Lois Openda be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga seas Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Franz Wagner win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Arch Manning be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Jordyn Tyson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Alabama win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jake Guentzel win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 29 $0 +$12 —%
Will Oxford United win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tounde Yessoufou be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Juraj Slafkovsky win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Chanelle Torrez win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary el Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in April 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Pre Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Ollie Watkins be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Nico Hischier win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will West Ham United win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) win the most seats in the Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Thierno Barry be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Alex Vlasic win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets in April 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $327 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? SELL No 87¢ $20 2h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $7 4h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $2 5h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $2 5h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $2 5h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $3 5h
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $29 6h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $12 6h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $0 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL No 18¢ $11 10h
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 11h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $15 12h
Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026? SELL No 6¢ $27 12h
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026? SELL No 7¢ $13 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by Sept SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2 SELL Yes 9¢ $0 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 3 BUY No 97¢ $45 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 3 BUY No 97¢ $3 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2 BUY No 99¢ $3 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,260.20 · official $1,242.52 · 3500 history records