Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1D 0x1d8b…cc69 sports 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$111 (-3%) realized −$108 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%30W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$244
7 days−$93
14 days−$115
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$115
other 24% −$2
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 50% -11.8%
≤30d 61 -4.9% -13.9% 49% 49% -12.4%
≤90d 61 -4.9% -13.9% 49% 49% -12.4%
all 61 -4.9% -13.9% 49% 49% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 49% -12.4%
10% -22.2% 49% -20.8%
15% -29.7% 46% -28.4%
20% -36.6% 33% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$48 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses30 / 31
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions5
Markets (closed)61 / 67
History coverage7d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-3%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 43¢ 42¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $47 −$46 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $54 +$26 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $10 +$16 +158%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $228 +$162 +71%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $19 +$31 +165%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $11 +$4 +40%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $71 −$20 -29%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $96 −$96 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$42 +103%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $61 −$10 -16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $210 +$160 +76%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $170 −$170 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $52 +$18 +36%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $9 −$8 -83%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 +$25 +83%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +109%
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ shots Jun 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 +$36 +119%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$8 +165%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$4 -24%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 $0 -9%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$30 +30%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $230 +$108 +47%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $51 +$28 +56%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $100 +$50 +50%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $71 −$56 -78%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$29 +93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $102 −$101 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $61 +$39 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $52 +$48 +93%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $99 +$51 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $125 −$124 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 +$16 +114%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $58 −$57 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 45m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 45m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 46m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 46m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $38 56m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 57m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $43 4h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $52 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $54 12h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $19 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $10 14h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $31 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 71¢ $11 15h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $53 17h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $17 17h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $9 17h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $40 17h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $109 17h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $21 23h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 48¢ $96 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 16¢ $12 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $20 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $10 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $10 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $30 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 56¢ $12 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 37h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.76 · official $249.77 (match) · 147 history records